Longtime NASA Flight Director Gene Kranz is credited with coining the phrase, “Failure is not an option,” although he never actually said it. Methinks the second part of that quote, which, again, Kranz never said, is “it is inevitable.” Or, delivered in “tech-bro-speak:” “Failure isn’t a bug, it’s a feature.” The reality of failure is that it is a constant companion for us all.
Michael Jordan missed 12,345 of the 24,537 shots (50.3%) he took during his storied NBA career. Hitting nearly 50% of his shots is a remarkable accomplishment, but, one could argue that 12,345 of those shots were failures.
Babe Ruth, arguably the greatest Major League Baseball player of all time, struck out 1,330 times in the course of his 22-year career (15.8% of his total at-bats). Sure, he hit some homeruns, but, a strikeout (a “K,” for those of you scoring at home) can be labeled nothing but a failure.
Tiger Woods has played in a total of 373 PGA Golf Tour events, winning 94 of them, and cashing checks amounting to more than $120 million, but he didn’t win 279 of the tournaments in which he competed (74.8%) - failure?
How about you? Have you ever fallen short of your goal of winning something? Do you need a hug?
What is an acceptable failure rate? Major League Baseball presents a pretty good example of an acceptable failure rate. If you record a .300 batting average in a given year, that’s considered an excellent performance - do it consistently during the course of a career, and you’ll likely wind up in the Hall of Fame.
Think about that for a moment - you fail 70% of the time you enter the batter’s box, and you’re considered to be a Hall of Famer. Baseball allows for a pretty narrow performance window, however, because the “Mendoza Line,” so named for light-hitting shortstop, Mario Mendoza, and which represents batting ineptitude, has been established at the .200 batting average level - i.e. you fail 80% of the time. Below that level, you’re dismissed as a “bush-leaguer.”
So, clearly, it’s incumbent upon us to lower the bar, where possible. Certain situations call for tougher standards, however: in situations involving operating room doctors, airline pilots attempting landings and condom protection, I believe it’s reasonable to demand a failure rate below 70%.
On the other hand, it’s entirely plausible to expect weather forecasters, stock pickers and Punxsutawney Phil to record a failure rate north of that 70% threshold.
What are the implications of adopting Major Leagues Baseball’s (MLB’s) success vs. failure threshold? I can envision a couple of scenarios (three, to be exact):
Taylor Swift performed 45 songs during her “Eras” tour last year - embracing MLB’s 70% acceptable failure rate, Taylor’s concerts would be shortened significantly - to 13.5 songs - tickets to her concerts are pretty pricey, but MLB hasn’t trimmed its ticket prices, even though players fail 70% of the time, so, why should Taylor? A corollary to the Taylor Swift formula is, of course, that boyfriend Travis Kelce’s statistics would have to be adjusted as well. Travis Kelce has averaged 5.7 catches, for 12.5 yards per reception, per game - the MLB “haircut” would yield an average of 1.7 catches per game, and a downgraded 3.8 yards per reception - hardly seems like all-star numbers, but, hey, this is just math here.
A hypothetical salesperson working for a large consumer products company might have the (theoretical) door slammed in his face 70% of the time, and would be considered to be the company’s star salesperson, earning large commission checks, and that coveted parking space near the front entrance to the building. Salespeople are accustomed to failure; perhaps that 70% failure rate is an upgrade.
Classmates congratulate a fellow student for “knocking it out of the park,” by earning a 30% score on his Chemistry midterm exam. This one is not all that implausible, as we have lowered the education bar pretty significantly over the years already.
We’ve all failed many times during our lives - in our professional careers, in our family relationships, and, at the bowling alley. But, I take solace in the fact that I haven’t missed 12,345 shots in an NBA basketball game, or struck out 1,330 times in MLB games or lost 279 professional golf tournaments - I got that going for me. . .which is nice.
As Gene Kranz never said, "Failure is not an option." Rule of Three similarly has never said, "Not subscribing to Rule of Three is not an option." So, subscribe already - click the button below - also, it's free, man!
I'm bad at math
Josh Reynolds, wide receiver for the Detroit Lions, has a career drop percentage of about 5 percent, which is quite good. But when it mattered the most, in the NFC Championship Game, his drop percentage was 50 percent! And now, the chances of the Lions dropping him is also 50 percent.